CFB DFS War Room - Week 4: Saturday 9/20 Main Slate Battle Plan
We’ve already made it to Week 4 of the college football season and this slate has fireworks written all over it. The 11-game main slate is loaded with juicy DFS environments: SMU vs TCU, Utah vs Texas Tech, Arkansas at Memphis, Clemson vs Syracuse, and Oklahoma vs Auburn where Jackson Arnold faces off against his old team. We’ve got teams that have been hyped finally stepping up against real competition, fun narratives everywhere, and several spots where matchups and pricing set us up for big GPP leverage. Let’s dive in.
Top Game Environments (Quick Glance)
| Game | Vegas Total | DFS Note |
|---|---|---|
| SMU vs TCU | 64.5 | Elite shootout spot, weak SMU pass rush gives Hoover time, Harden and Brinson top bring-backs. |
| Utah vs Texas Tech | 58.0 | Utah elite vs run, TT forced to throw 40+ times, Dampier and Davis chalk, Morton stacks leverage. |
| Arkansas at Memphis | 62.5 | Fast game, Green + Blake chalk, Sutton Smith strong bring-back, Washington leverage. |
| Clemson vs Syracuse | 55.5 | Weak Syracuse run D, Randall chalk, all Clemson WRs viable, Cook top bring-back. |
| Duke vs NC State | 58.0 | Duke’s sky-high pass rate fuels Mensah stacks, Smothers chalk RB, NCST slot attackable. |
Game-by-Game Breakdown
Arkansas at Memphis
Key edges: Arkansas’ pass rush has a major advantage over Memphis’ OL. On the other side, Memphis – Sutton Smith (RB, $6600, Ownership 11%, vs ARK) is explosive and can punish Arkansas’ missed tackles. Arkansas – Taylen Green (QB, $8400, Ownership 23%, vs MEM) is a true dual-threat in a fast-paced game environment.
DFS plan: Chalk stacks of Arkansas – Taylen Green (QB, $8400, Ownership 23%, vs MEM) and Arkansas – O’Mega Blake (WR, $6200, Ownership 22%, vs MEM) are fine. Mix in Arkansas – Jalen Brown (WR, $3100, Ownership 4%, vs MEM) as a cheap WR. The sharp bring-back is Memphis – Sutton Smith (RB, $6600, Ownership 11%, vs ARK). If you MME, sprinkle Memphis – Brendon Lewis (QB, $7700, Ownership 15%, vs ARK) doubles if Arkansas doesn’t dominate with pressure. Arkansas – Mike Washington Jr. (RB, $6900, Ownership 7%, vs MEM) is one of my guys, explosive, under-owned compared to Green, and can rip long runs or steal multiple TDs.
Utah vs Texas Tech
Key edges: Utah’s run defense is elite, so Tech should throw 40 to 50 times. That highlights Texas Tech – Coy Eakin (WR, $5500, Ownership 20%, vs UTAH), Texas Tech – Terrance Carter Jr. (TE, $3600, Ownership 4%, vs UTAH) (cheap TE with heavy usage, projections say 3% but ownership could rise since he’s cheap and red-zone involved), and Texas Tech – Caleb Douglas (WR, $5800, Ownership 10%, vs UTAH) one of my guys, outside WR with big-play ability who hasn’t broken out yet. Utah answers with Utah – Devon Dampier (QB, $8700, Ownership 21%, vs TTU) one of my guys, dual-threat ceiling in a great game environment and Utah – Ryan Davis (WR, $4600, Ownership 15%, vs TTU) one of my guys, clear WR1, undervalued in this range.
DFS plan: Chalk stack is Utah – Devon Dampier (QB, $8700, Ownership 21%, vs TTU) and Utah – Ryan Davis (WR, $4600, Ownership 15%, vs TTU). Add Utah – Dallen Bentley (TE, $3200, Ownership 1%, vs TTU) as a cheap punt. For leverage, I love Texas Tech – Behren Morton (QB, $7600, Ownership 6%, vs UTAH) one of my guys, low-owned volume passer with Texas Tech – Caleb Douglas (WR, $5800, Ownership 10%, vs UTAH), Texas Tech – Coy Eakin (WR, $5500, Ownership 20%, vs UTAH), and Texas Tech – Terrance Carter Jr. (TE, $3600, Ownership 4%, vs UTAH).
TCU vs SMU
Key edges: SMU’s pass rush is one of the worst in the country, giving TCU – Josh Hoover (QB, $8200, Ownership 21%, vs SMU) one of my guys, plenty of time. That sets up a breakout for TCU – Eric McAlister (WR, $6900, Ownership 1%, vs SMU) one of my guys, my favorite WR play, projections say 1% but I expect ownership to be higher, breakout spot and also keeps TCU – Jordan Dwyer (WR, $5600, Ownership 30%, vs SMU) in play. Inside, TCU’s nickel is weak, boosting SMU – Romello Brinson (WR, $4100, Ownership 26%, vs TCU) and SMU – RJ Maryland (TE, $3800, Ownership 10%, vs TCU). SMU – TJ Harden (RB, $5500, Ownership 11%, vs TCU) one of my guys, 5 TDs in last two, lead role is a smash.
DFS plan: Core stack is TCU – Josh Hoover (QB, $8200, Ownership 21%, vs SMU) and TCU – Eric McAlister (WR, $6900, Ownership 1%, vs SMU) my favorite WR play. Add TCU – Jordan Dwyer (WR, $5600, Ownership 30%, vs SMU) in doubles. Leverage: TCU – Jeremy Payne (RB, $4100, Ownership 7%, vs SMU) if rushing TDs hit. Bring-backs: SMU – Romello Brinson (WR, $4100, Ownership 26%, vs TCU), SMU – Jalen Cooper (WR, $3700, Ownership 18%, vs TCU), SMU – RJ Maryland (TE, $3800, Ownership 10%, vs TCU), and SMU – TJ Harden (RB, $5500, Ownership 11%, vs TCU).
Oklahoma vs Auburn
Key edges: Oklahoma – Deion Burks (WR, $7000, Ownership 5%, vs AUB) is the clear alpha, especially when OU is in Trips. Auburn will rely on Auburn – Eric Singleton Jr. (WR, $4500, Ownership 5%, vs OU) and Auburn – Cam Coleman (WR, $6400, Ownership 10%, vs OU) to keep pace.
DFS plan: Oklahoma – John Mateer (QB, $9000, Ownership 13%, vs AUB) and Oklahoma – Deion Burks (WR, $7000, Ownership 5%, vs AUB) stacks are viable, but Burks is often better as a one-off. Auburn run-backs: Auburn – Eric Singleton Jr. (WR, $4500, Ownership 5%, vs OU) and Auburn – Cam Coleman (WR, $6400, Ownership 10%, vs OU).
Clemson vs Syracuse
Key edges: Syracuse’s run defense is bad, which makes Clemson – Adam Randall (RB, $7100, Ownership 26%, vs SYR) one of my guys, a strong play. Clemson – Cade Klubnik (QB, $9700, Ownership 13%, vs SYR) can still get there through the air. PFF shows Clemson – Tyler Brown (WR, $3600, Ownership 10%, vs SYR) as the slot who attacks Syracuse’s weak nickel. For Syracuse, Syracuse – Johntay Cook (WR, $4300, Ownership 2%, vs CLEM) is the slot bring-back.
DFS plan: Stacks: Clemson – Cade Klubnik (QB, $9700, Ownership 13%, vs SYR) with Clemson – Bryant Wesco Jr. (WR, $6700, Ownership 10%, vs SYR) and Clemson – Tyler Brown (WR, $3600, Ownership 10%, vs SYR). Bring-backs: Syracuse – Johntay Cook (WR, $4300, Ownership 2%, vs CLEM) or Syracuse – Dan Villari (TE, $3900, Ownership 12%, vs CLEM). Keep Clemson – Adam Randall (RB, $7100, Ownership 26%, vs SYR) in your RB pool.
Duke vs NC State
Key edges: Duke throws at the highest rate. Duke – Darian Mensah (QB, $7400, Ownership 14%, vs NCST) one of my guys, affordable, high-volume passer locks onto Duke – Cooper Barkate (WR, $4600, Ownership 32%, vs NCST) one of my guys and Duke – Que’Sean Brown (WR, $5400, Ownership 8%, vs NCST) one of my guys. PFF says attack Duke’s nickel with NC State – Keenan Jackson (WR, $3000, Ownership 10%, vs DUKE). NC State – Hollywood Smothers (RB, $8600, Ownership 27%, vs DUKE) is the safe workhorse.
DFS plan: Favorite stack is Duke – Darian Mensah (QB, $7400, Ownership 14%, vs NCST) with Duke – Cooper Barkate (WR, $4600, Ownership 32%, vs NCST) and Duke – Que’Sean Brown (WR, $5400, Ownership 8%, vs NCST). Bring-backs: NC State – Hollywood Smothers (RB, $8600, Ownership 27%, vs DUKE) or NC State – Justin Joly (TE, $4000, Ownership 2%, vs DUKE). Contrarian: NC State – CJ Bailey (QB, $7800, Ownership 3%, vs DUKE) with NC State – Keenan Jackson (WR, $3000, Ownership 10%, vs DUKE).
Michigan vs Nebraska
Not a game I’ll be too invested in.
Key edges: Michigan OL dominates. Michigan – Justice Haynes (RB, $7500, Ownership 19%, vs NEB) one of my guys, true RB1 is the priority. Michigan – Marlin Klein (TE, $3100, Ownership 10%, vs NEB) is a cheap TD punt.
DFS plan: Stick to Michigan – Justice Haynes (RB, $7500, Ownership 19%, vs NEB), maybe mix in Michigan – Marlin Klein (TE, $3100, Ownership 10%, vs NEB). Avoid Nebraska.
Ole Miss vs Tulane
Key edges: Tulane’s run defense is soft. Ole Miss – Kewan Lacy (RB, $7700, Ownership 27%, vs TUL) one of my guys, core RB this week is a smash. Ole Miss – Harrison Wallace III (WR, $4100, Ownership 44%, vs TUL) is mispriced but very chalky. PFF shows Tulane’s nickel weakness, making Ole Miss – Cayden Lee (WR, $3900, Ownership 3%, vs TUL) sneaky.
DFS plan: Lock Ole Miss – Kewan Lacy (RB, $7700, Ownership 27%, vs TUL). Underweight Ole Miss – Harrison Wallace III (WR, $4100, Ownership 44%, vs TUL) in GPPs. Pivot to Ole Miss – Cayden Lee (WR, $3900, Ownership 3%, vs TUL). Punt TE: Ole Miss – Dae’Quan Wright (TE, $3700, Ownership 10%, vs TUL). Tulane bring-backs: Tulane – Jake Retzlaff (QB, $7100, Ownership 8%, vs MISS) or Tulane – Omari Hayes (WR, $3200, Ownership 5%, vs MISS).
Notre Dame vs Purdue
Not a game I’ll be too invested in.
Key edges: Notre Dame – Jeremiyah Love (RB, $9000, Ownership 31%, vs PUR) is solid. Slot WR Notre Dame – Jordan Faison (WR, $4200, Ownership 3%, vs PUR) and TE Notre Dame – Eli Raridon (TE, $4800, Ownership 2%, vs PUR) are options.
DFS plan: If stacking: Notre Dame – CJ Carr (QB, $8800, Ownership 3%, vs PUR) with Notre Dame – Eli Raridon (TE, $4800, Ownership 2%, vs PUR) or Notre Dame – Jordan Faison (WR, $4200, Ownership 3%, vs PUR). Purdue bring-back: Purdue – Michael Jackson III (WR, $3900, Ownership 12%, vs ND).
UCF vs UNC
Key edges: Best cheap stack is UNC – Gio Lopez (QB, $6700, Ownership 6%, vs UCF) with UNC – Jordan Shipp (WR, $4300, Ownership 2%, vs UCF). UCF – Myles Montgomery (RB, $8200, Ownership 14%, vs UNC) is their workhorse. UNC – Demon June (RB, $4600, Ownership 2%, vs UCF) one of my guys, projections show 2% but ownership could rise, explosive new starter, still underpriced.
DFS plan: Stack UNC – Gio Lopez (QB, $6700, Ownership 6%, vs UCF) with UNC – Jordan Shipp (WR, $4300, Ownership 2%, vs UCF). Run it back with UCF – Myles Montgomery (RB, $8200, Ownership 14%, vs UNC). Add UNC – Demon June (RB, $4600, Ownership 2%, vs UCF) into your RB pool.
Wisconsin vs Maryland
Not a game I’ll be too invested in.
Key edges: WISC – Vinny Anthony II (WR, $3800, Ownership 6%, vs UMD) is cheap leverage in the slot. WISC – Dilin Jones (RB, $6200, Ownership 4%, vs UMD) is the main RB in your sheet. Bring-backs: UMD – Jalil Farooq (WR, $4200, Ownership 7%, vs WISC) or UMD – Dorian Fleming (TE, $4100, Ownership 10%, vs WISC).
DFS plan: If touching this game, use WISC – Dilin Jones (RB, $6200, Ownership 4%, vs UMD) with WISC – Vinny Anthony II (WR, $3800, Ownership 6%, vs UMD). Run back with UMD – Jalil Farooq (WR, $4200, Ownership 7%, vs WISC).
Core Pool Summary
Chalk I’ll Eat
- UTAH – Devon Dampier (QB, $8700, Ownership 21%, vs TTU) – dual-threat upside, great environment.
- ARK – Taylen Green (QB, $8400, Ownership 23%, vs MEM) – chalky dual-threat, rushing floor plus ceiling.
- TCU – Josh Hoover (QB, $8200, Ownership 21%, vs SMU) – SMU’s weak pass rush sets him up for 300+ yards and multiple scores.
- DUKE – Darian Mensah (QB, $7400, Ownership 14%, vs NCST) – efficient passer, affordable, volume in high pass-rate offense.
- MISS – Kewan Lacy (RB, $7700, Ownership 27%, vs TUL) – Tulane’s run D is leaky, Lacy is Ole Miss’ top weapon.
- MICH – Justice Haynes (RB, $7500, Ownership 19%, vs NEB) – Michigan’s RB1, explosive, should control touches.
- CLEM – Adam Randall (RB, $7100, Ownership 26%, vs SYR) – Clemson’s RB1, Syracuse run D is weak, locked-in volume.
- DUKE – Cooper Barkate (WR, $4600, Ownership 32%, vs NCST) – top target for Mensah, elite share.
- UTAH – Ryan Davis (WR, $4600, Ownership 15%, vs TTU) – Utah’s WR1, overlooked in this range.
- TTU – Coy Eakin (WR, $5500, Ownership 20%, vs UTAH) – high-volume slot WR, Tech should throw a ton.
- SMU – Romello Brinson (WR, $4100, Ownership 26%, vs TCU) – too cheap for his role, chalky bring-back.
- MISS – Harrison Wallace III (WR, $4100, Ownership 44%, vs TUL) – mispriced WR, safest value but chalky.
Leverage and GPP Pivots
- TTU – Behren Morton (QB, $7600, Ownership 6%, vs UTAH) – low-owned QB in a pass-heavy spot.
- ARK – Mike Washington Jr. (RB, $6900, Ownership 7%, vs MEM) – pivot off Green chalk, explosive RB with TD equity.
- SMU – TJ Harden (RB, $5500, Ownership 11%, vs TCU) – lead back, 5 TDs in last two games, upside in shootout.
- UNC – Demon June (RB, $4600, Ownership 2%, vs UCF) – projections show 2% but ownership could rise, explosive new starter.
- TCU – Eric McAlister (WR, $6900, Ownership 1%, vs SMU) – my favorite WR play, projection shows 1% but I expect higher, breakout ceiling spot.
- TTU – Caleb Douglas (WR, $5800, Ownership 10%, vs UTAH) – outside WR with aDOT, feels like a breakout game.
- TTU – Terrance Carter Jr. (TE, $3600, Ownership 4%, vs UTAH) – cheap TE with heavy usage, projections say 3% but ownership could rise since he’s cheap and red-zone involved.
- DUKE – Que’Sean Brown (WR, $5400, Ownership 8%, vs NCST) – WR2 for Mensah, part of Duke’s concentrated passing game.
- CLEM – Antonio Williams (WR, $7200, Ownership 4%, vs SYR) – leverage off Randall chalk.
- CLEM – Bryant Wesco Jr. (WR, $6700, Ownership 10%, vs SYR) – emerging alpha, ceiling at modest ownership.
- CLEM – Tyler Brown (WR, $3600, Ownership 10%, vs SYR) – slot WR, cheap leverage vs Syracuse’s weak nickel.